rotting flesh load rates

[Gnua]

Is the rotting flesh load rate lower than healing wave and last chance? I've seen 5 healing waves and 4 last chances but not rotting flesh. Is this just bad luck or are the rates significantly lower on rotting flesh?  is this kinda like devastation for blacks?

[Hoss]

Why you always got to make it a racial thing?
Just kidding...
They are all about equal in terms of drop rate.

[Gnua]

Why you always got to make it a racial thing?
Just kidding...
They are all about equal in terms of drop rate.

I realize that it could just be bad luck, but now 7 healing waves and 4 last chances. it is very hard to believe they are about equal load rates but i know it is possible. is it also possible that there is a misplaced decimal or an unintentional bug?

[kanu]

What's the probability of a 0, 7, 3 distribution if each spell is equally distributed?

We can group the two non-rotting flesh spells together, which means that there is a (2/3)^10 (approximately 0.0173) probability of only non-rotting flesh spells or roughly a 2% chance of this happening, which is a low probability event, but not completely ridiculously low.

Eg. I would not be at all surprised if you can just chalk this up to an infrequent and unlikely event rather than a bug in the load rate.

[Gnua]

What's the probability of a 0, 7, 3 distribution if each spell is equally distributed?

We can group the two non-rotting flesh spells together, which means that there is a (2/3)^10 (approximately 0.0173) probability of only non-rotting flesh spells or roughly a 2% chance of this happening, which is a low probability event, but not completely ridiculously low.

Eg. I would not be at all surprised if you can just chalk this up to an infrequent and unlikely event rather than a bug in the load rate.

yeah, that's the calculation i used as well, except i did (2/3)^11 because it was a 074.  with the probably under 2%, we're talking two standard deviations away from mean which isnt impossible but when I meet other shamans in the zone who also want only rotting flesh, i thought it would be worth at least asking the question to increase the size of data.

oops.... after a few hours i just realized that i need to do (2/3) ^ 10 like you did because the first result doesnt count because we want to know the likelyhood of at least one of the three not making it in 11. I guess that's why you went on to be a math teacher and i dropped out of math

[Hoss]

1/5 is probably closer than your assumption of 2/3. There are 14 Happy Shamans with the spell, so it is loading. You might be flagged REED and won't get any loads because its in my inventory.

[Gnua]

1/5 is probably closer than your assumption of 2/3. There are 14 Happy Shamans with the spell, so it is loading. You might be flagged REED and won't get any loads because its in my inventory.

thanks for the info hoss.  perhaps the happy shamans have been doing a different mob than i have then and it was a mistake to assume that just because a mob loads two of the spells that it must load the third with a similar probability.

[oom]

When I was spelling up I got rotting flesh right away and had to wait for healing wave after throwing away flesh and chance charms.
If you flip a coin enough, you'll get tails 10 times in a row eventually.

[Gnua]

When I was spelling up I got rotting flesh right away and had to wait for healing wave after throwing away flesh and chance charms.
If you flip a coin enough, you'll get tails 10 times in a row eventually.

Thanks for the info, I was wondering if others had opposite experiences.  The last time rates seemed a little off for me, I said nothing (barbarian superb charge wasnt landing much). When Altyst mentioned it on the forums, an immortal to a look and found that the 'penalty for not wearing shield' had gotten applied to barbarian charge.  Maybe I'll go re-read the opening to 'Rosencrantz and Guildenstern are dead' while waiting for charm zones to repop.

[Gnua]

There are 14 Happy Shamans with the spell, so it is loading.

how many shamans have healing wave and last chance? is that in the latest statdump?

[oom]

Well it's 15 now. We got our 3rd MYTH shaman with flesh today. Maybe I am the lucky charm!

[Gnua]

Well it's 15 now. We got our 3rd MYTH shaman with flesh today. Maybe I am the lucky charm!

you telling me i gotta join myth to get rotting flesh?

[Gramm]

no, joining myth wont get you rotting flesh, hahaha i have every spell but rotting flesh too man. if that shit loads its MINE trolololol no flesh for you EVER